The income from offshore oil and gas will be less than expected over the next generation, according to an official report released today.
The funds generated for the British taxpayer from companies based in Aberdeen will decline over the next 25 years, economic forecasters have warned.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the total amount the UK could expect from taxation from the industry between 2018 and 2041 was £56bn, down from a previous prediction of £67bn.
The OBR says long-term projection shows revenues falling from the current level of 0.7% of all UK economic activity to just 0.03% over the subsequent two decades.
The decline is due to a lower estimate of where oil prices will be by 2040/41. The OBR says that they will go down from the $173 per barrel it calculated last year to $150.
The figures also take account of a decline in oil production at a rate of 5% per year, which would be slower than the 7.8% a year on average since 1999.
In response to the forecasts, a spokeswoman for the Scottish government said Scotland's oil and gas sector was "going from strength to strength", with investment in the North Sea projected to reach a record £13bn in 2013 while planned total investment by companies was worth about £100bn.
A spokeswoman said: "There are estimated to be up to 24 billion barrels of oil remaining with a potential wholesale value of £1.5 trillion remaining in the North Sea which means, by value, more than half of North Sea oil and gas resources have still be to be extracted.
"The OBR's central forecast is cautious and relies on both production and price forecasts below the levels assumed by industry and other independent bodies.”
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